Vol. 11 No. 2 (2023): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
Articles

Turkey’s crude oil import forecast with time series analysis models: Analysis of the March-December 2023 period

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  • Kâmil Abdullah Eşidir,
  • Yunus Emre Gür
Kâmil Abdullah Eşidir
Dr., Fırat Kalkınma Ajansı, Elâzığ, Türkiye
Bio
Yunus Emre Gür
Arş. Gör. Dr., Fırat Üniversitesi, Elâzığ, Türkiye
Bio
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v11i2.2244

Published 2023-06-26

Keywords

  • Zaman Serisi Analizi, ARIMA Modeli, Ham Petrol, İthalat
  • Time Series Analysis, ARIMA Model, Crude Oil, Import

How to Cite

Eşidir, K. A., & Gür, Y. E. (2023). Turkey’s crude oil import forecast with time series analysis models: Analysis of the March-December 2023 period. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 11(2), 594–609. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v11i2.2244

Copyright (c) 2023 Kâmil Abdullah Eşidir- Yunus Emre Gür

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Turkey meets a significant portion of its energy demand through crude oil imports. Turkey's monthly crude oil imports are a significant factor in meeting the country's energy demand. Turkey meets this need by importing crude oil from various countries. According to 2022 data, Turkey's monthly crude oil imports are around 2.8 million tons on average. This study estimated Turkey's 10-month crude oil import amounts for March to December 2023 using ARIMA models from Time Series Analysis. The designed model's dependent variable is Turkey's monthly crude oil import amount (kg). The independent variables of the model are the domestic producer price index of crude oil, the monthly average exchange rate of the US Dollar to the Turkish Lira, monthly Turkey exports (USD), monthly Turkey imports (USD), and monthly European crude oil barrel price (USD). The monthly data sets used in the study were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, and the US Energy Information Administration. The data set covers 230 months from January 2004 to February 2023. The analysis results of the ARIMA model are statistically significant. The estimated results predict that Turkey's monthly crude oil import amounts will vary between 2.4 and 2.65 million tons between March and December 2023.

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