Published 2026-06-25
Keywords
- Borsa Kapitalizasyonu, Makroekonomik Belirleyiciler, OECD Ülkeleri, Sistem GMM
- Stock Market Capitalisation, Macroeconomic Determinants, OECD Countries, System GMM
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2026 Berna Doğan Başar

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
Abstract
This study examines the effects of macroeconomic indicators on stock market capitalisation in OECD countries from 2001 to 2024. Data from 19 OECD countries are used to analyse these relationships using the System Generalised Method of Moments (System GMM) within the framework of dynamic panel data analysis. In the model, stock market capitalisation, representing the share of publicly traded local firms' market values in GDP, is considered the dependent variable. In contrast, GDP, inflation, private sector credit, and trade openness are considered independent variables. The findings indicate a statistically significant, positive relationship among economic growth, private sector credit, and stock market capitalisation. This suggests that economic growth and financial intermediation activities play a significant role in the development of capital markets in OECD countries. The findings highlight the need to adopt growth-oriented policies that support access to credit to develop financial markets. Given the limited number of studies addressing this relationship in a long-term, comparative framework across OECD countries in recent years, this study is expected to fill a significant gap in the literature.
References
- Aali-Bujari, A., Venegas-Martínez, F. ve Pérez-Lechuga, G. (2017). Impact of the stock market capitalisation and the banking spread in growth and development in Latin American: A panel data estimation with System GMM. Contaduría y Administración, 62(SPE5), 1427-1441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cya.2017.09.005
- Alshubiri, F. (2022). The impact of the real interest rate, the exchange rate and political stability on foreign direct investment inflows: a comparative analysis of G7 and GCC countries. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 29(3), 569-603. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-022-09360-0
- Arellano M. ve Bond S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
- Aromolaran, O. ve Ngepah, N. (2024). Threshold analysis of the stock market capitalisation and monetary policy in South Africa: The role of investment in artificial intelligence. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 14(5), 18-25. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.15947
- Aromolaran, O., Ngepah, N., Joel, L. O. ve Saba, C. S. (2024). Macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalisation in Africa's most developed financial sector: A Bayesian approach. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 16(1), 178-205. https://doi.org/10.34109/ijefs.202416108
- Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. ve Levine, R. (2009). Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time-data and analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (4943). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4943
- Bhuiyan, E. M. ve Chowdhury, M. (2020). Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 77, 62-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.10.005
- Blundell R. ve Bond S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
- Cherif, M. ve Gazdar, K. (2010). Institutional and macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in MENA region: New results from a panel data analysis. International Journal of Banking and Finance, 7(1), 139-159. https://e-journal.uum.edu.my/index.php/ijbf/article/view/8403/1366
- Cooray, A. (2010). Do stock markets lead to economic growth?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(4), 448-460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.05.001
- Cournède, B. ve O. Denk (2015). Finance and economic growth in OECD and G20 countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1223, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/5js04v8z0m38-en
- Çelik, A. ve Koç, A. (2024). Asgari ücret ve ekonomik büyüme hızının emek ve sermaye gelirlerine etkisi: OECD ülkeleri için sistem GMM yaklaşımı. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 9(1), 145-170. https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1309833
- Demir, C. (2019). Macroeconomic determinants of stock market fluctuations: The case of BIST-100. Economies, 7(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7010008
- Demirgüç-Kunt, A. ve Levine, R. (1996). Stock market development and financial intermediaries: stylised facts. The World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 291-321. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/10.2.291
- Eldomiaty, T., Azzam, I., Fouad, M. ve Said, Y. (2024). The use of economic ındicators as early signals of stock market progress: perspectives from market potential ındex. International Journal of Financial Studies, 12(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12010021
- Evan, O. (2023). The effect of stock market capitalisation on economic growth in Kenya. International Journal of Finance Research, 3(4), 357-371. https://doi.org/10.47747/ijfr.v3i4.989
- Garber, P. M. (1990). Famous first bubbles. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), 35-54. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1942889
- Garcia, V. F. ve Liu, L. (1999). Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development. Journal of applied Economics, 2(1), 29-59. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.1999.12040532
- Ghimire, A., Miya, R., Guragain, S., Upreti, S., Poudel, S. ve Okheda, S. B. (2025). Impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market capitalisation in Nepal. Economic Review of Nepal, 8(1), 82-101. https://doi.org/10.3126/ern.v8i1.80746
- Hanif, M. (2026). External macroeconomic variables and stock returns: evidence from conventional and ıslamic ındices. Forecasting, 8(2), 20. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast8020020
- Humpe, A., McMillan, D. G. ve Schöttl, A. (2025). Macroeconomic determinants of the stock market: A comparative study of Anglosphere and BRICS. Finance Research Letters, 75, 106869. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.106869
- Jamaludin, N., Ismail, S. ve Ab Manaf, S. (2017). Macroeconomic variables and stock market returns: Panel analysis from selected ASEAN countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1). https://izlik.org/JA48RK76KG
- Karaca, C., Ekşi, İ. H. ve Şit, A. (2025). Borsa kapitalizasyonu, ekonomik büyüme, ticaret hacmi ve banka kredi genişlemesinin sürdürülebilir gelişim üzerindeki etkisi: g7 ülkelerinden kanıtlar. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 43(1), 94-115. https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1465279
- Karahan, F. (2026). Threshold effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns: a setar model analysis of the BIST 100 Index. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (125), 325-344. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1845510
- Khrawish, H. A., Siam, W. Z. ve Jaradat, M. (2010). The relationships between stock market capitalisation rate and interest rate: Evidence from Jordan. Business and Economic Horizons, 2(2), 60-66. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.95964
- Levine, R. ve Zervos, S. (1998). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth. American economic review, 88(3), 537-558. https://www.jstor.org/stable/116848
- Phuong, L. C. M., Quynh, T. T., Vi, H. L. T. ve Truc, D. T. K. (2023). Impact of macro factors on stock market capitalisation. VNU University of Economics and Business, 3(2), 60-68. https://doi.org/10.57110/vnujeb.v3i2.155
- Prats Albentosa, M. A. ve Sandoval, B. (2020). Does stock market capitalisation cause GDP? A causality study for Central and Eastern European countries?. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 14(2020-17), 1-29. https://doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2020-17
- Rafay, M., Omar, A. B., Munir, F. ve Murtaza, K. (2023). Stock market capitalisation and its macroeconomic determinants: an empirical ınvestigation from emerging economy. Journal of Contemporary Macroeconomic Issues, 4(1), 92-108. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8041725
- Raza, S. A. ve Jawaid, S. T. (2014). Foreign capital inflows, economic growth and stock market capitalisation in Asian countries: an ARDL bound testing approach. Quality & Quantity, 48(1), 375-385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9774-4
- Reinganum, M. R. (1999). The significance of market capitalisation in portfolio management over time. Journal of Portfolio Management, 25(4), 39-50. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1999.319750
- Sahay, M. R., Cihak, M., N'Diaye, M. P., Barajas, M. A., Pena, M. D. A., Bi, R., ... ve Yousefi, M. R. (2015). Rethinking financial deepening: Stability and growth in emerging markets. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498312615.006
- Shiller, R. J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83-104. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003321164967
- Yıldırım, M. ve Yıldırım, D. (2025). Stock Market Development, Financial Development, and Economic Growth Relationship: An Application in Fragile Economies. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 7(2), 125-137. https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1711743
- Tan, H. B., Cheah, E. T., Johnson, J. E., Sung, M. C. ve Chuah, C. H. (2012). Stock market capitalisation and financial integration in the Asia Pacific region. Applied Economics, 44(15), 1951-1961. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.556593
- Toraman, C. ve Başarir, Ç. (2014). The long run relationship between stock market capitalisation rate and interest rate: Co-integration approach. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 143, 1070-1073. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.07.557


