Cilt 13 Sayı 4 (2025): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
Makaleler

ADR'ler ile ana ülke makroekonomik göstergeleri arasındaki dinamik bağlantılar: Türkiye’den ampirik kanıtlar

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  • Murat Topcu
Murat Topcu
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi, İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi, İstanbul, Türkiye

Yayınlanmış 25.12.2025

Anahtar Kelimeler

  • American Depository Receipts (ADR), Dual Registration, ARDL Model
  • Amerikan Depo Sertifikaları (ADR), Çift Kayıt, ARDL Modeli

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

ADR’ler ile ana ülke makroekonomik göstergeleri arasındaki dinamik bağlantılar: Türkiye’den ampirik kanıtlar. (2025). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 13(4), 1783-1799. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v13i4.2644

Telif Hakkı (c) 2025 Murat Topcu

Creative Commons License

Bu çalışma Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ile lisanslanmıştır.

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

ADR’ler ile ana ülke makroekonomik göstergeleri arasındaki dinamik bağlantılar: Türkiye’den ampirik kanıtlar. (2025). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 13(4), 1783-1799. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v13i4.2644

Öz

ABD hisse senedi piyasasında, Amerikan Depo Sertifikası (ADR) yöntemiyle Türkiye menşeli 17 şirket hissesi çifte kayıtlıdır. Bu hisselerin getiri ve temettü performansı BNY Mellon Türkiye Klasik ADR endeksi (BKCTRT) ile ölçülmektedir. Portföy çeşitlendirmesinde ADR’leri tercih edecek yatırımcılar açısından ana ülke temel ekonomik göstergelerinin ADR piyasası üzerindeki etkileri önemli bir konudur. Çalışma ana ülke Tükiye’nin enflasyon, reel döviz kuru, faiz ve CDS göstergelerinde meydana gelen değişimlerin, ABD piyasasındaki Türkiye BKCTRT endeksi üzerinde etkisini ve aralarındaki dinamik ilişkieri araştırmaktadır. Çoklu değişkenler arası ilişkilerin analizinde Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme Modeli (ARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. ARDL modelinin istatistiki tutarlılığı için modelin varsayım sınamaları, anlamlılığı, kararlılığı test edilmiştir. ARDL eş bütünleşme analiz sonuçları değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eş bütünleşme ilişkisini doğrulamaktadır. Uzun dönemde Türkiye enflasyon ve reel döviz kurundaki değişim BKCTR endeksini istatistiksel olarak pozitif, CDS ise negatif etkilemektedir. Faiz değişkenin uzun dönem etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır. Kısa dönemde CDS değişkeni istatistiksel olarak anlamlı BKCTRT endeksini iki gecikmeye kadar etkilemektedir. Kısa dönemde elde edilen hata terimi katsayısı (ECM) negatiftir ve mevcut dönemde yaşanan bir şok etkisi bir sonraki dönemde % 18’i düzeltilmektedir. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye temel ekonomik göstergelerindeki değişimlerden ABD piyasasına doğru bir etki söz konusudur. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre yatırımcılara ABD hisse senedi piyasasında Türkiye ADR’lerini portföye dahil edilmesi ve çıkartılması kararlarında, türev piyasalarda Türkiye Klasik (BKCTRT) endeksi opsiyonu alım satım kararlarında Türkiye’nin CDS, reel döviz kuru ve enflasyondaki değişmeleri ve beklentileri dikkate almaları önerilir.

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