Cilt 13 Sayı 4 (2025): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
Makaleler

BYF fiyatları üzerindeki makroekonomik etkiler: iShares MSCI Türkiye'den kanıtlar

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  • Umut Kemeç,
  • Veysel Kula,
  • Ender Baykut
Umut Kemeç
Dr., Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, Afyonkarahisar, Türkiye
Veysel Kula
Prof. Dr., Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, Afyonkarahisar, Türkiye
Ender Baykut
Doç. Dr., Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, Afyonkarahisar, Türkiye

Yayınlanmış 25.12.2025

Anahtar Kelimeler

  • Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), Stock Exchange
  • Borsa Yatırım Fonları (BYF), Döviz Kuru, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar (FDI), Hisse Senedi Piyasası

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

BYF fiyatları üzerindeki makroekonomik etkiler: iShares MSCI Türkiye’den kanıtlar. (2025). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 13(4), 2297-2315. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v13i4.2662

Telif Hakkı (c) 2025 Umut Kemeç- Veysel Kula- Ender Baykut

Creative Commons License

Bu çalışma Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ile lisanslanmıştır.

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

BYF fiyatları üzerindeki makroekonomik etkiler: iShares MSCI Türkiye’den kanıtlar. (2025). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 13(4), 2297-2315. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v13i4.2662

Öz

Borsa yatırım fonları (ETFs), günümüzde finansal piyasalara erişim için en yaygın kullanılan finansal araçlar arasındadır. Bu çalışmada, BIST100 endeksi, döviz kuru, faiz oranı, doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri, Türkiye'nin CDS primleri ve VIX gibi temel makro finansal göstergelerin iShares MSCI Türkiye'nin fiyat dinamikleri üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Analiz, 2013-2024 dönemini kapsayan çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak ARDL metodolojisinden yararlanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun vadede, iShares MSCI Türkiye, BIST100 endeksi ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif ilişki sergilerken, döviz kuru ile istatistiksel olarak anlamlı negatif ilişki göstermektedir. iShares MSCI Türkiye fiyatlarında oluşan şokların kısa vadede etkili olduğu ve en az %95'inin bir sonraki döneme yansıdığı belirlenmiştir. Ancak, bu şoklar bir sonraki dönemde dengelenmekte ve yakınsama göstermektedir. Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre, döviz kuru ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri, iShares MSCI Türkiye hisse senedinin Granger nedenleridir. Bu nedenle, BIST100, döviz kuru ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri göstergeleri, iShares MSCI Türkiye yatırımcıları ve fon yöneticileri için yatırım stratejilerini belirlemede önemlidir.

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