Cilt 13 Sayı 3 (2025): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
Makaleler

Küresel ve Türkiye'ye özgü jeopolitik risklerin BİST endeksleri üzerindeki etkisinin araştırılması

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  • İsmail Fatih Ceyhan
İsmail Fatih Ceyhan
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi, Bartın Üniversitesi, Bartın, Türkiye

Yayınlanmış 25.09.2025

Anahtar Kelimeler

  • Geopolitical Risk, BIST Indices, NARDL, Asymmetry
  • Jeopolitik Risk, BİST Endeksleri, NARDL, Asimetri

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

Küresel ve Türkiye’ye özgü jeopolitik risklerin BİST endeksleri üzerindeki etkisinin araştırılması. (2025). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 13(3), 1376-1390. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v13i3.2569

Telif Hakkı (c) 2025 İsmail Fatih Ceyhan

Creative Commons License

Bu çalışma Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ile lisanslanmıştır.

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

Küresel ve Türkiye’ye özgü jeopolitik risklerin BİST endeksleri üzerindeki etkisinin araştırılması. (2025). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 13(3), 1376-1390. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v13i3.2569

Öz

Bu araştırma, jeopolitik gelişmelerin gelişmekte olan piyasalardaki yatırım stratejilerini ve risk fiyatlamasını nasıl etkilediğine ışık tutmaktadır. Çalışma, küresel ve Türkiye'ye özgü jeopolitik risklerin BİST'te işlem gören hisse senedi endeksleri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi ve Türkiye'ye özgü bir jeopolitik risk endeksi kullanılarak, bu risklerin 10 farklı sektörel endeks üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri analiz edilmektedir. Bulgular, jeopolitik olaylar ile finansal piyasa dinamikleri arasındaki karmaşık etkileşimin anlaşılmasına katkıda bulunmakta ve jeopolitik belirsizlikleri etkin bir şekilde yönetmek isteyen yatırımcılar ve politika yapıcılar için değerli bilgiler sunmaktadır. Çalışmada, BİST endeksleri ve jeopolitik risk endekslerinin aylık kapanış fiyatlarını içeren Şubat 1997-Ocak 2025 dönemine ait kapsamlı bir veri seti ile NARDL modeli uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, Türk hisse senedi endekslerinin küresel ve yerel jeopolitik risklere karşı farklı duyarlılığını ve yatırım kararlarında bu faktörlerin dikkate alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

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