ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TEST IN MEAN AND IN VARIANCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND OIL PRICES
- Exchange Rate, Oil Price, Asymmetric Causality
- Döviz Kuru, Petrol Fiyatı, Asimetrik Nedensellik
How to Cite
In this study, the causality relationship between Euro / Dollar exchange rate and oil prices was analyzed by causality tests on average and variance. According to the Toda-Yamamoto causality test based on Bootstrap developed by Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006), there is no linear causality between exchange rate and oil price. According to the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test findings, causality was determined from negative shocks in oil prices to positive shocks in exchange rates, and from positive shocks in exchange rate to negative shocks in oil prices. Thus, it is concluded that the oil price and Euro/dollar exchange rate move asymmetrically opposite direction. The Hafner-Herwartz variance causality test findings, which examine the causality between exchange rate variance and oil price variance, point to causality from volatility in oil price to volatility in Euro / Dollar exchange rate.
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