Vol. 7 No. 5 (2019): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal


Gökhan UZEL
Res. Asisst., Uludag University
Prof. Dr., Uludag University

Published 2019-12-25


  • International Trade, Gravity Model, Agricultural Product Export, Agricultural Production Value, Per Capita Animal Protein Consumption
  • Uluslararası Ticaret, Çekim Modeli, Tarım Ürünleri İhracatı, Tarımsal Üretim Değeri, Kişi Başı Hayvansal Protein Tüketimi

How to Cite

UZEL, G., & GÜRLÜK, S. (2019). TURKEY’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT: AN APPLICATION OF THE GRAVITY MODEL. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 7(5), 2964–2979. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v7i5.1222


The aim of this study is to determine the agricultural export structure of Turkey with the gravity model method and discuss possible policy proposals. In line with this aim an annual panel data of 16 selected countries Turkey export to for the period 2001-2030 has been used in the gravity model. According to the estimation results, GDP and population of the countries that Turkey export to are related to the agricultural exports positively while the distance variable is negatively. As the per capita animal protein consumption ratio increase, it can be said that new agricultural export areas can be opened for Turkey. At this point, it has been determined that Turkey needs to follow increasing domestic consumption trends and emerging markets. As a result, it is important for policy makers to take into account the relevant determinations of the export strategy of agricultural products.


Download data is not yet available.


  1. Aitken, N. (1973). The Effects of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A temporal Cross-Section Analysis. The American Economic Review, 63(5)- 881-892.
  2. Ata, S. (2013). Turkey’s Trade with Neighbour Countries: A Gravity Model Analysis. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, St. Petersburg, Russia, 17-18 September 2013, p:500-509.
  3. Atıcı, C., & Güloğlu, B. (2006). Gravity Model of Turkey’s Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegatable Export to the EU. Journal of International Food& Agribusiness Marketing, 18:(3-4)- 7-21.
  4. Demirel B., & Erdem, C. (2004). The impact of exchange rate variability on export: The case of Turkey. The Journal of Economy, Business and Finance, 19(223): 116-127.
  5. Distance Calculator Home Page. http://www.distancefromto.net/ (accessed on 04.08.2019)
  6. Erdem, E., & Nazlıoğlu S. (2008). Gravity Model of Turkish Agricultural Exports to the European Union. International Trade and Finance Association Working Papers, pp:21.
  7. Erol, E. (2015). Structural Analysis of Turkish Agricultural Foreign Trade and Effects of EU Process Türkiye. EU Expertise Thesis. Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock Directore General of EU and Foreign Affairs, Ankara, Turkey,
  8. FAO (2018a). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Home Page. Available Online: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QV (accessed on: 04.08.2019)
  9. FAO (2018b). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Home Page. Available Online: http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/TM(accessed: 04.08.2019)
  10. IMF (2018). International Monetary Fund Home Page https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/index.aspx (accessed on 04.08.2019)
  11. Kulkarni, G.K., Gupte, R., Sethi, S. 2015. Gravity Model: India’s Exports. SCMS Journal of Indian Management, 38-50.
  12. Linnemann H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows, Humanities Press, Newyork.
  13. Nitsch V. (2000). National borders and international trade: Evidence from the European Union. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 33(4): 1091-1105.
  14. Poyhonen, P. A. (1963). Tentative Model for Volume in Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90:91-113.
  15. Sandalcılar, A.R. (2012). Determinants of Agricultural Product Trade in the Black Sea Basin: Gravity Model Approach. Turkish international Cooperation and Coordination Agency. Eurasian Etudes, 41(1): 71-94.
  16. Schwab, K. (2013). The Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014. World Economic Forum, Geneva.
  17. Sevela M. (2002). Gravity-type Model of Czech Agricultural Export. AgriculturalEconomics, 48:463-466.
  18. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions For an International Economy Policy, The Twentieth Century Fund. New York.
  19. Thursby J.G., & Thursby M.C. (1987). Bilateral Trade Flows, Linder Hypothesis and Exchange Risk. Rewiew of Economics and Statistics, 69(3): 488-495.
  20. UNCTAD (2018). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Home Page http://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx (accessed on 04.08.2019)