Cilt 14 Sayı 3 (2026): Business & Management Studies: An International Journal
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ABD-İsrail-İran savaşının BİST ulaştırma ve savunma hisseleri üzerindeki etkisi: Olay çalışması yaklaşımı

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  • Dorukhan Günaydın
Dorukhan Günaydın
Öğr. Görv., İstanbul Nişantaşı Üniversitesi, İstanbul, Türkiye

Yayınlanmış 25.09.2026

Anahtar Kelimeler

  • U.S.-Israel-Iran War, Borsa Istanbul, Event Study
  • ABD-İsrail-İran Savaşı, Borsa İstanbul, Olay Çalışması

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

ABD-İsrail-İran savaşının BİST ulaştırma ve savunma hisseleri üzerindeki etkisi: Olay çalışması yaklaşımı. (2026). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 14(3), 1435-1455. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v14i3.2810

Telif Hakkı (c) 2026 Dorukhan Günaydın

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Bu çalışma Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License ile lisanslanmıştır.

Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

ABD-İsrail-İran savaşının BİST ulaştırma ve savunma hisseleri üzerindeki etkisi: Olay çalışması yaklaşımı. (2026). Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 14(3), 1435-1455. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v14i3.2810

Öz

28 Şubat 2026’da ABD’nin İsrail-İran gerilimine dâhil olmasıyla süreç, ABD-İsrail-İran savaşı olarak daha geniş bir jeopolitik nitelik kazanmıştır. Bu tür jeopolitik gelişmeler, finansal piyasalarda belirsizliği artırarak hisse senedi getirileri üzerinde sektörlere göre farklılaşan etkiler ortaya çıkarabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören ulaştırma şirketleri ile savunma sanayii şirketleri hisselerinin, savaşın başladığı gün olarak kabul edilen ilk işlem günü etrafındaki kısa vadeli fiyatlama davranışları olay çalışması metodolojisiyle incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, ilgili hisse senetlerinin günlük kapanış fiyatları kullanılarak olay günü etrafındaki ortalama anormal getiriler (AAR) ile farklı olay pencerelerindeki kümülatif ortalama anormal getiriler (CAAR) hesaplanmış; istatistiksel anlamlılıkları analiz edilmiştir. Ulaştırma hisselerine ilişkin AAR bulguları, olay tarihinden önceki bazı günlerde pozitif, bazı günlerde ise negatif etkilerin görüldüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Olay tarihindeki güçlü negatif etki, izleyen ilk işlem gününde tepki alımını yansıtan pozitif fiyatlamaya dönüşmüştür. CAAR bulguları ise günlük etkiler farklı yönlerde olsa da ulaştırma hisselerindeki negatif etkinin olay tarihi ve öncesini kapsayan asimetrik pencerelerde biriktiğini göstermektedir. Savunma hisselerinde ise, olay tarihi ve öncesindeki gün pozitif fiyatlama davranışı öne çıkarken, olay tarihi öncesindeki ve sonrasındaki bazı günlerde negatif etkiler de görülmüştür. Kümülatif sonuçlar ise pozitif etkinin özellikle olay tarihi ve öncesini kapsayan asimetrik pencereler ile olaya yakın dar simetrik pencerelerde biriktiğini göstermektedir. Genel görünüm, aynı jeopolitik şokun ulaştırma hisselerinde maliyet kanalıyla kısa vadeli olumsuz, savunma hisselerinde ise savunma ve güvenlik harcaması beklentileriyle kısa vadeli olumlu fiyatlama yarattığını, ancak her iki grupta da olay sonrası etkinin zayıfladığını göstermektedir.

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